Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Forex Automated Trading Signals Buy GBP/JPY Using Breakout2 in Final Week of Free Trial
This is our final week to take advantage of our Forex Buy/Sell Signals on DailyFX+ for free. Be sure to monitor any updates on these specific signals, as our automated forex signals can and do change on a daily and intraday basis. For more information and guides on using our DailyFX Buy/Sell Signals, see our Weekly Forex Trading Strategy Outlook report.
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Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Indonesia's currency hit after forex rules tightened
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Monday, December 29, 2008
Forex News and Rumors - Afternoon Update
Yen Gains on Dollar
The yen gained ground today as investors turned away from the dollar on growing fears over the U.S. economy. More
Lower Demand Leads to Oil Refinery Output Cuts
The U.S. Energy Department reported that slowing demand for gasoline and other fuel products have forced U.S. refineries to reduce output and are currently running at 84.3 percent of capacity. Lower demand has also pushed down crude oil prices with January futures falling 23 cents to $46.73 a barrel. More
U.S Beige Book Shows Economy Has Weakened
The US Federal Reserve Beige Book shows that economic activity has weakened across the US. This is leading analysts to predict that the Fed will reduce interest rates - possibly even down to zero percent - by the end of January. More
Sunday, December 28, 2008
FOREX-Dollar, yen rise as global gloom deepens with US jobs
* Dollar, yen remain well-bid as recession worries linger
* U.S. payrolls data show steepest fall in 34 years
* Markets fully price another half-point U.S. rate cut
* For up-to-the-minute market news, click on FXNEWS (Updates prices, adds quotes)
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, Dec 5 (Reuters) - The dollar climbed against European currencies while the yen rallied on Friday as economic worries worldwide deepened after a report showing the steepest monthly fall in U.S. jobs since 1974.
The yen had rallied to six-week highs against the dollar immediately following the U.S. non-farm payrolls report, reviving speculation the Bank of Japan, also battling a recession, may intervene in the market to temper the Japanese currency's strength, which has hurt the country's exports.
"Falling equity and commodity prices are adding to risk aversion, thereby benefiting the dollar and yen," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon in New York. "Deteriorating economic fundamentals in the U.S. and overseas are adding to risk aversion, also benefiting the dollar and yen."
The employment data for November underscored the depth of the downturn in the world's largest economy, with news of a surprising fall in German manufacturing orders in October and Canada's sharp job losses last month also heightening the gloom around the world.
As the global economy worsens, analysts said investors will continue to snap up the U.S. dollar and yen as they pare back their their holdings of risky trades financed by both currencies' cheap rates.
The dollar will also benefit from continued repatriation by U.S. fund managers liquidating their overseas investments, spooked by financial and economic concerns.
In midday New York trading, the euro
RISKS FOR DOLLAR/YEN
The dollar fell as low as 91.60 yen
The greenback had fallen to a 13-year low below 91 yen in October and that could be at risk if market sentiment deteriorates. Should the dollar fall below 90 yen, analysts say, that could raise the BoJ's alarm signals, prompting it to intervene in the market and weaken its currency.
The euro dropped 0.9 percent to 116.71 yen
Data on Friday showed U.S. employers cut payrolls by a shocking 533,000 in November, the sharpest monthly loss since 1974, as recession in the world's largest economy deepened. Markets were expecting job losses of 340,000, according to Reuters data. For report, click on [ID:nN05444819].
All told, the U.S. economy has now shed 1.9 million positions since the beginning of the year.
The unemployment rate likewise rose to 6.7 percent, the highest since 1993.
"Just when you thought that the U.S. economic outlook couldn't get any uglier, it goes ahead and does," said Meny Grauman, an economist at CIBC World Markets in Toronto.
"Not only have we seen a steady stream of job losses since the beginning of the year, but we are now seeing the type of sustained triple-digit monthly job losses that have accompanied some of the deepest U.S. recessions."
The gloomy jobs data further bolstered expectations of another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
Interest rate futures now fully price a 50-basis-point Fed rate cut on Dec. 16, which would take the federal funds rate to 0.50 percent. The implied prospects for a cut to 0.25 percent jumped to 76 percent from 64 percent late on Thursday.
European central banks slashed interest rates on Thursday in efforts to stimulate their flagging economies, but market participants believe rates of major countries around the world have more room to fall. (Editing by Dan Grebler)
Saturday, December 27, 2008
Forex Market Update: Japanese Yen Cross Under Pressure, USD/JPY moving towards 94.50 Area (Update)
source
Friday, December 26, 2008
FOREX-Dollar, yen rise as global gloom deepens with US jobs
* Dollar, yen remain well-bid as recession worries linger
* U.S. payrolls data show steepest fall in 34 years
* Markets fully price another half-point U.S. rate cut
* For up-to-the-minute market news, click on FXNEWS (Updates prices, adds quotes)
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, Dec 5 (Reuters) - The dollar climbed against European currencies while the yen rallied on Friday as economic worries worldwide deepened after a report showing the steepest monthly fall in U.S. jobs since 1974.
The yen had rallied to six-week highs against the dollar immediately following the U.S. non-farm payrolls report, reviving speculation the Bank of Japan, also battling a recession, may intervene in the market to temper the Japanese currency's strength, which has hurt the country's exports.
"Falling equity and commodity prices are adding to risk aversion, thereby benefiting the dollar and yen," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon in New York. "Deteriorating economic fundamentals in the U.S. and overseas are adding to risk aversion, also benefiting the dollar and yen."
The employment data for November underscored the depth of the downturn in the world's largest economy, with news of a surprising fall in German manufacturing orders in October and Canada's sharp job losses last month also heightening the gloom around the world.
As the global economy worsens, analysts said investors will continue to snap up the U.S. dollar and yen as they pare back their their holdings of risky trades financed by both currencies' cheap rates.
The dollar will also benefit from continued repatriation by U.S. fund managers liquidating their overseas investments, spooked by financial and economic concerns.
In midday New York trading, the euro
RISKS FOR DOLLAR/YEN
The dollar fell as low as 91.60 yen
The greenback had fallen to a 13-year low below 91 yen in October and that could be at risk if market sentiment deteriorates. Should the dollar fall below 90 yen, analysts say, that could raise the BoJ's alarm signals, prompting it to intervene in the market and weaken its currency.
The euro dropped 0.9 percent to 116.71 yen
Data on Friday showed U.S. employers cut payrolls by a shocking 533,000 in November, the sharpest monthly loss since 1974, as recession in the world's largest economy deepened. Markets were expecting job losses of 340,000, according to Reuters data. For report, click on [ID:nN05444819].
All told, the U.S. economy has now shed 1.9 million positions since the beginning of the year.
The unemployment rate likewise rose to 6.7 percent, the highest since 1993.
"Just when you thought that the U.S. economic outlook couldn't get any uglier, it goes ahead and does," said Meny Grauman, an economist at CIBC World Markets in Toronto.
"Not only have we seen a steady stream of job losses since the beginning of the year, but we are now seeing the type of sustained triple-digit monthly job losses that have accompanied some of the deepest U.S. recessions."
The gloomy jobs data further bolstered expectations of another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
Interest rate futures now fully price a 50-basis-point Fed rate cut on Dec. 16, which would take the federal funds rate to 0.50 percent. The implied prospects for a cut to 0.25 percent jumped to 76 percent from 64 percent late on Thursday.
European central banks slashed interest rates on Thursday in efforts to stimulate their flagging economies, but market participants believe rates of major countries around the world have more room to fall. (Editing by Dan Grebler)
Thursday, December 25, 2008
Teva net up 21%; forex effects are in focus
4:00pm 11/06/2008

Delayed quote data

source
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
FOREX: Ringgit Opens Lower Against US Dollar
At 9am, the ringgit was traded at 3.6255/6285 from 3.6210/6260 recorded last Friday.
In view of gloomy global financial markets, a dealer said investors are looking to reduce their holdings.
There is still some buying in the market, but it is not aggressive.
However, the ringgit was traded mostly higher against other major currencies.
It rose against the Singapore dollar at 2.3898/3939 from last Friday's 2.4010/4064 but it was lower against the yen at 3.8035/8082 from 3.8000/8068 previously.
Against the British pound, the ringgit strengthened at 5.5575/5647 from 5.5782/5877 last Friday as well as against the euro at 4.5906/5948 from 4.6772/6862 previously.
-- BERNAMA
source
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
FOREX-Dollar rises to 2-week highs on global growth worries
* Dollar rises to two-week high vs basket of currencies
* Dollar, yen underpinned by global growth worries
* Sterling hits record low vs euro
* For up-to-the-minute market news, please click FXNews
(Recasts, adds comments, changes byline)
By Vivianne Rodrigues
NEW YORK, Nov 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar rallied to a two-week high against a basket of currencies on Tuesday as worries about a deteriorating global economy prompted investors to shun riskier assets and flock to the safety of the greenback.
A sell-off in stock markets worldwide further dampened investors' appetite for risk, boosting demand for the dollar and the Japanese yen. A break of the recent trading ranges further exacerbated selling pressure on the euro, analysts said.
"The outlook for global growth and for most equities remains dismal," said Jessica Hoversen, a fixed-income and currency analyst at MF Global in Chicago. "The U.S. dollar is benefiting from diminished risk appetite. It is still seen as a safe asset."
In late trading in New York, the ICE Futures U.S. dollar index, which tracks the value of the greenback against a basket of six currencies, was up 1.4 percent at 87.159 .DXY after rising as high as 87.268, the strongest level since Oct. 28.
The euro
U.S. stocks tumbled as production cuts at aluminum maker Alcoa, fears of a cash drain at automaker General Motors and signs the Chinese economy is faltering heightened fears of a global economic slump.
"The overall driver is just the slowing global outlook and the dollar generally does a bit better in that environment, not to mention that the selling is focusing on the euro zone, UK and Australia, all of which are facing incoming weak data that likely will continue to highlight downside risks in their economies," said Brian Dolan, head of currency research at Forex.com in Bedminster, New Jersey.
RISK APPETITE
The yen traded broadly higher as worries over slowing growth kept up the pressure on carry trades, in which low-yielding currencies like the Japanese currency are used to buy assets in higher-yielding ones.
"With the depressing news on the global economy continuing to spill out, the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen rally," said Andrew Busch, global FX strategist at BMO Capital Markets in Chicago. "The recession is spreading as the credit crisis winds blow the radioactive waste further and further throughout the world."
The dollar last traded down 0.3 percent at 97.74 yen
Higher-yielding currencies tumbled, with the Australian dollar trading 1.5 percent lower at US$0.6586
The euro came under pressure despite a better-than-expected reading in a key German indicator survey ECON, weighed down by steep losses in crude oil and U.S. stocks.
"For the currency market, the decline in oil prices is bullish for the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen, but bearish for the euro," said Kathy Lien, director of currency research at GFT Forex in New York. "Since the beginning of the year, there has been a 70 percent positive correlation between the euro/dollar and the price of oil."
In other trading, sterling was battered as it fell to its lowest in 12 years on a trade-weighted basis and hit a record low against the euro on concerns that the UK economy will suffer even more than the euro zone.
The euro earlier hit a record high against sterling of 82.14 pence, according to Reuters data
(Additional reporting by Wanfeng Zhou; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
Forex Education – Get the 10 Questions Right Below or You Will Lose At Forex Trading!
1. Forex day trading is a good way to make money
The answer is no – your 100% guaranteed to lose as all short term volatility is random you can’t get the odds in your favour and you will lose.
2. Forex markets move to scientific theory
The answer is no of course they don’t. If they did then we would all know the answer in advance and there would be no market. A market price moves by its very nature due to uncertainty.
3. Buying Dips To Moving Averages Is a Great Strategy
Buying dips to a moving average is a great way to lose money – it’s a lagging not a leading indicator and should never be used in isolation
4. Everything about trading is learned anyone can do it
The correct answer is yes. Anyone can learn to trade if they get the right Forex education and learn the correct knowledge and skills to succeed. Of course most traders fail to do this and lose.
5 Simple Forex Trading Systems Work Better Than Complicated Ones
As a general rule the correct answer is yes, as they are more robust in the face of brutal ever changing market conditions. If a system is to complicated it collapses, as there are too many elements to break.
Most of the world's top trading systems are simple.
6. I Don’t Need To Work Hard To Make a Lot Of Money
The correct answer is yes. You don’t need to work hard, as there is no correlation between the effort you put in and the reward you get out of forex trading.
You only get paid for being right, nothing else and the amount of effort you make does NOT make any difference to your currency trading success.
The trick is to work smart not hard.
7. Buy low sell high is the best way to make money
The correct answer is no. The best way to make money is not to try and buy lows but buy new highs. The fact is the biggest market moves tend to start form new market HIGHS Not market lows.
If you want to catch the big trends, then aim for these breaks at new market highs and trade them.
8. The more news sources I consult the better
The correct answer is no. News sources don’t help you make money, in fact they normally help you lose - as you run with the pack and let your emotions get involved.
News is stories and the people giving them are not traders follow the news and you will lose.
9. I have a system that works I Don’t need any more education
The correct answer is yes. Many traders think they have to keep learning for ever but if you have a system that works you don’t need to spend any more time studying you can simply spend your time applying it and making money.
10. My risk per trade is my expected profit divided by my stop
The answer is obviously no as this is simply an opinion you hold and has no relation to what the odds of success are. Many people say its high return low risk based upon their opinion and that’s not the way to trade forex.
source
Monday, December 22, 2008
Forex Automated Trading Signals Buy Into GBPJPY Range
Our Forex Automated Trading Signals bought the British Pound against the Japanese Yen using the Range1 trade. The trade is currently above par, with 44 pips of P/L at the moment. When considering this position, take into account the downward trend and the two other strategies that are trading against Range1.
This is the final week to take advantage of our Forex Buy/Sell Signals on DailyFX+ at no charge. Be sure to monitor any updates on these specific signals, as our automated forex signals can and do change on a daily and intraday basis. For more information and guides on using our DailyFX Buy/Sell Signals, see our Weekly Forex Trading Strategy Outlook report.
Forex Automated Trading Signals Sell GBP/USD With Breakout2
Our Forex Automated Trading Signals sold the British Pound against the U.S. Dollar using our flagship Breakout2 system. The strategy, which has had a historic 66% accuracy percentage and an average per trade profit of 137.5 pips, appears to be following the downward trend. Momentum2 also seems to be following the trend. All signs seem to be pointing towards the “sell” side of the pair.
This is the final week to take advantage of our Forex Buy/Sell Signals on DailyFX+ at no charge. Be sure to monitor any updates on these specific signals, as our automated forex signals can and do change on a daily and intraday basis. For more information and guides on using our DailyFX Buy/Sell Signals, see our Weekly Forex Trading Strategy Outlook report.
Forex Traders Don't Read Forex Books- It's Official
Forex Traders Don't Read Forex Books- It's Official
A recent survey carried out by ForexPros shows some surprising industry figures.
Tortola (PRWEB) December 12, 2008 -- Over 30 % of the traders that were surveyed do not read daily technical analysis to enhance their trades.
Another 30% do not use an economic events calendar in their daily routine. Most of the people in this group are unaware, in fact, as to what an economic calendar is.
The traders questioned are more worried about quick withdrawal of their funds rather than using brokers who are regulated.
In terms of educating themselves in Forex, traders don't like reading books; in fact attending webinars is a much more popular form of self-education.
The vast majority of traders who were asked which platform they trade from chose MetaTrader over any other provider.
To find out what makes Forex traders tick visit our survey results at http://www.forexpros.com/surveys/home
About Forexpros
Forexpros offers the most definitive Forex portal on the web. It contains industry leading market analysis, news and trading tools which provides brokers, traders and everyone involved in the financial market with an all-round guide to Forex.
Sunday, December 21, 2008
FOREX-U.S. dollar down vs yen, but off 13-year lows
* Dollar at 13-1/2-yr low vs yen, Senate rejects bailout
* White House, U.S. Treasury to step in to help automakers
* Dollar index on track for worst week since 1995 (Updates prices, adds comment)
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, Dec 12 (Reuters) - The dollar staged a partial recovery from a fall to a 13-year low against the yen on Friday as investors grew more optimistic that the White House or the U.S. Treasury will help save the troubled auto sector.
U.S. Senate talks on a $14-billion rescue package for the stricken sector collapsed late on Thursday, heightening global recession fears and prompting a flight from risky assets such as equities and emerging markets. For more see [ID:nLC248861].
That had pushed the yen higher, particularly against high-yielding currencies.
The White House's willingness to temporarily prop up ailing car makers helped the dollar recover against the yen, said David Watt, senior currency strategist, at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto.
"But the intervention risk is there and traders are not willing to push the dollar lower in case Japan intervenes," he added.
The dollar had tumbled to 88.1 yen
By midday in New York, the dollar traded at 91.27, still down 0.6 percent on the day. The dollar plumbed its all-time low against the yen at 79.75 in 1995.
The dollar's gains have also eased this week, pushing its value versus a basket of currencies to its worst weekly loss since 1995. The ICE Futures' dollar index .DXY was up 0.3 percent on Friday at 83.884, but it was down about 3.4 percent this week.
Traders have been taking profits on the currency's dramatic gains in recent months, with some analysts speculating that repatriation flows in the dollar may be drying up as credit conditions have improved.
"The environment has become challenging for the dollar," said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD Securities in Toronto.
"Perhaps people are looking at the dollar and it's not looking great because of the U.S. economy's low growth and low interest rates. We are perhaps looking at the cusp of a big sell-off in the dollar."
INTERVENTION RISK
The dollar gained some breathing room against the yen but traders are on high alert for any intervention by the Japanese Finance ministry, although Japanese officials have suggested intervention is not on their agenda right now.
"But the risks are there and have to be taken into account," said Vassili Serebriakov, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo in New York.
Japan has a long history of trying to stem yen strength by intervening to buy dollars, although it has stayed out of the market since a 35 trillion yen ($382 billion) campaign over 15 months ended in March 2004.
The Ministry of Finance has moved away from heavy intervention because that last campaign had mixed results.
"But even if it occurs, historical experience tells us it could take months before the general trend of yen strength is reversed," the Wells Fargo analyst said.
Analysts said demand to pull out of risky positions remained high, which battered higher-yielding currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars against the yen. They added the yen would remain a big beneficiary of such moves.
The euro
The euro
The Australian
FOREX-Euro falls vs dlr; weak U.S jobs data expected
* Euro falls vs dlr; weak German manufacturing orders weigh
* Trade volumes thin ahead of U.S non-farm payroll data
* Weak payrolls may spur risk aversion, further boosting dlr (Changes byline, adds comment, updates throughout)
By Harpreet Bhal
LONDON, Dec 5 (Reuters) - The euro fell against the dollar on Friday on growing risk aversion ahead of U.S. employment figures, which are expected to show a sharp decline as the global economic downturn intensifies.
The euro was on the back foot after German October manufacturing orders posted a surprising fall of 6.1 percent on the month, while falling share prices in Europe also weighed on the single currency.
The U.S. currency gained traction, pushing the dollar index up 0.5 percent to 87.030 .DXY as investors dropped risky positions ahead of U.S non-farm payrolls for November due at 1330 GMT, which are forecast to fall by 340,000.
Expectations point towards the biggest monthly drop in non-farm jobs in more than two decades, adding to the view that the U.S economy is slowing sharply.
"We expect the numbers to be grim. With job losses steadily mounting you would question corporate earnings next year and there would be more pressure on carmakers because people without jobs wouldn't be buying them," said Tom Vosa, head of market economics at nabCapital in London.
By 1208 GMT, the euro fell 0.7 percent to $1.2675
The single European currency came under selling pressure as regional shares fell more than 2.0 percent.
Concerns over the health of the global economy have battered stock markets and other asset classes deemed risky, causing investors to drop higher-yielding currencies such as the euro, sterling and the Australian and New Zealand dollars in favour of the U.S currency and the low-yielding yen.
While analysts say that a dire U.S. jobs reading could be seen as dollar-negative on the view that it would reinforce the bleak economic outlook, some added that weak data could further spur risk aversion, pushing the U.S. currency higher.
"If we do see equity markets coming off sharply (after the U.S jobs data) and it turns into a global equity markets sell off, then we could well see currencies coming back under pressure against the dollar, so it could actually be a dollar-positive," said Ian Stannard, senior foreign exchange strategist at BNP Paribas in London.
Sterling
But the UK currency remained weak, hovering close to record lows against the euro, after the Bank of England cut interest rates by 100 basis points to 2 percent on Thursday.
The European Central bank also cut rates on Thursday, slicing 75 basis points from its benchmark rate to 2.5 percent.
Even after Thursday's big rate cuts, market participants believe that the interest rates of major countries around the world have more room to fall.
This would shrink their spreads against the Federal Reserve's 1.0 percent rate and Japan's 0.3 percent, which are seen keeping the dollar and the yen supported in the longer term.
Despite a spate of rate cuts this week, the gloom surrounding the global economy continues to linger. Data from the OECD showed the outlook for the world's leading economies has weakened further, with significant deterioration in the prospects for China, India and Russia [ID:nPAB004544]. (Additional reporting by Naomi Tajitsu) (Reporting by Harpreet Bhal; Editing by Victoria Main)
Saturday, December 20, 2008
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview
On Friday, the euro fell to a four-session low against the dollar after data showing a drop in euro-zone inflation forced the European currency to give up much of its gains from earlier in the week.
The euro declined nearly one cent to an intraday low of USD1.2620. That was the lowest since USD1.2565 on Nov. 24 and compared with USD1.2707 late Friday in New York. Against the yen it dropped about JPY1.2 to JPY120.16, a level unseen since Nov. 24. The euro later recouped some of its losses against its U.S. and Japanese counterparts. Speculators in Asia covered short-euro positions to lock in gain as caution set in over the scheduled release this week of key U.S. economic indicators plus the Big-Three U.S. automakers' corporate-rebuilding plans.
Pound tracked the Euro lower slipping below 1.53 briefly before recovering on the back on US stock gains to end the week well supported. UK data continued to be very weak with CBI retail trade survey falling to -46 to -27. GBPUSD traded with a low of 1.5260 and a high of 1.5448 before closing the day at 1.5415.
The Japanese Yen tracked the equities during the day although struggled to capitalize on the improved risk sentiment as crosses weighed the USDJPY down.
The Australian dollar was softer in Asia trading late Monday as a worsening stream of economic numbers out of the region weighed on demand for growth proxy currencies like the Aussie. The weakness in high yield currencies comes despite an emphatic recovery in global equities markets last week and points to the possibility of more pain for the Australian unit in weeks ahead.
Market expectation
The euro extended its losses in Asia on Monday, briefly falling to one-week lows versus the dollar and the yen on growing speculation that the European Central Bank may deliver a large interest-rate cut later this week.
The euro is continuing its slide Monday that carries over from last week. Dealers expect support at USD1.2650, with any gains likely capped at USD1.2800.
EUR slips a little against USD, JPY after German October retail sales data show 1.6% on-month fall, widely missing economists' forecast for 0.5% rise. Also, EURUSD support now at USD1.26 on technical charts, which keeps speculators eager to try downside breaks, say traders.
EURGBP is holding between stg0.8245/75. Early demand in Europe has allowed rate to extend recovery to stg0.8286, currently holding around stg0.8272. Support noted at stg0.8250/45, a break below to open a deeper move toward Friday's lows at stg0.8225, with bid interest noted between stg0.8225/15. Through here and rate can ease toward stg0.8200. Resistance placed at stg0.8285/95, a break above stg0.8300 to allow for a move on toward stg0.8315/20.
Markets generally expect that on Thursday, the European Central Bank will cut rates to 2.5% from 3.25%, and the Bank of England to 2.0% from 3.0%. Investors also anticipate a reduction of 75 to 100 basis points in Australia on Tuesday and up to a 150-basis-point cut in New Zealand on Thursday.
RPT-FOREX-Dollar hits 13-yr low vs yen, recovers on car hope
* Dollar hits 13-year low vs yen; intervention fears rise
* Hopes of White House help for automakers eases concern
* Dollar index has worst week since 1995 (Refiles to recast first paragraph)
By Steven C. Johnson
NEW YORK, Dec 12 (Reuters) - The dollar fell against the yen on Friday, but recovered from a 13-year low after the White House said it would consider steps to stave off a collapse of the ailing U.S. auto sector.
Earlier, the dollar plunged to 88.10 yen, its lowest since mid-1995, after the U.S. Senate rejected a $14 billion auto rescue plan. That heightened recession fears, pushing investors to buy the yen to cover trades that were financed by borrowing the currency at low rates.
It rebounded to 90.97 yen, still down 0.8 percent on the day, after the White House said it may use money from a $700 billion rescue package for banks for an emergency loan to U.S. automakers.
The dollar hit an all-time low of 79.75 yen in 1995.
The euro fell 0.6 percent to 121.81 yen.
"That the Treasury may step up and extend short-term help, at least until the new administration comes in, is positive for risk appetite," said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at Forex.com in Bedminster, New Jersey. "It extends the auto sector lifeline and shows they're going to throw everything but the kitchen sink at this."
The U.S. currency still ended the week firmly in the red, though, suffering its biggest weekly decline against a basket of major currencies since 1995.
Analysts said traders have been taking profits after months of steady gains and speculated that some of the repatriation flows that have lifted the greenback have started to dry up.
On Friday, the dollar was firmer against some rivals as wary investors bought it against higher-yielding, higher-risk currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars.
The euro was up slightly at $1.3371 while sterling fell 0.5 percent to $1.4945 and the dollar rose 0.5 percent to 1.1780 Swiss francs.
In recent months, the dollar has rallied against nearly all the major currencies, save the yen, as risk-averse investors sold overseas assets and snapped up dollars with which to buy safe-haven U.S. government bonds.
But that trend showed signs of fraying this week.
"The environment has become challenging for the dollar," said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD Securities in Toronto. "Perhaps people are looking at the dollar and it's not looking great because of the U.S. economy's low growth and low interest rates. We are perhaps looking at the cusp of a big sell-off in the dollar."
INTERVENTION RISKS
Another reason for the dollar's rebound against the yen on Friday, analysts said, was fear Japan would intervene to weaken the currency. A strong yen makes Japanese exports more expensive in overseas markets.
"The risk is there and traders are not willing to push the dollar lower in case Japan intervenes," said David Watt, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto.
Japan has a long history of trying to stem yen strength through market intervention, although it has stayed on the sidelines since 2004.
While intervention is a risk, Vassili Serebriakov, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo in New York, said "historical experience tells us it could take months before the general trend of yen strength is reversed."
Indeed, the last time Japan intervened, it took 15 months and 35 trillion yen ($382 billion) to weaken the currency. (Additional reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by editing by Gary Crosse)
Friday, December 19, 2008
Forex Market Update For Friday December 12 (FXE, FXY, FXF)
This week, we will look at some fundamental news that has, or could have, an impact on the future pricing of these pairs.
The Euro
The euro gained more that 50 pips from an open below 1.3300 to close above 1.3350 against the USD today, as the bailout of U.S troubled automakers didn't make it through the Senate. Nervousness that a bankruptcy for these companies would be detrimental the the American economy seems to be having a detrimental effect on the USD. The EUR/USD pair closed the week up over 500 pips from its open at $1.2914. With continued worry over the condition of the U.S. economy going forward, traders looking to profit on this pair may be best suited not to buck the trend and maintain a long position in this currency.
In the spot markets, the euro trades against the USD in the currency pair EUR/USD, with the euro being the base currency quoted in USD. The CurrencyShares Euro Trust (NYSE:FXE) tracks this pair, and can be used to take a position for or against the strength of the euro in relation to the USD. One share of the CurrencyShares Trusts, is equivalent to purchasing US$100 of the EUR/USD pair; and so, for example, a 100 share long position in FXE, is equivalent to a long position in the EUR/USD pair to the amount of US$10,000 (often known as 1 mini-lot). The CurrencyShares Trusts are a great way to trade the forex market through your regular investment accounts. (Be sure to check out the answer to our frequently asked question, Why isn't the EUR/USD currency pair quoted as USD/EUR? to learn more about the structure of currency pairs.)
The British Pound
The Bank of England currently has its central bank rate at 3%, which is much higher than the U.S.'s current 1%, which just adds to the same situation seen in the EUR/USD pair. The trade for the pound versus the dollar has become stronger, with a large interest rate differential helping along the way. Traders looking to take advantage of the current dollar weakness, and the Federal Reserve's decision to continue to lower interest rates, should be looking at the pound to take advantage.
The pound remained fairly flat against the USD this week, gaining just over 100 pips, finishing the week just under $1.5.
The pound, like the euro, trades against the USD in a currency pair (GBP/USD) where it is the base currency, quoted in U.S. dollars. The CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust (NYSE:FXB) tracks this pair in the same way, with one share being equivalent to purchasing US$100 of the GBP/USD pair.
The Japanese Yen
Trading volume in the Japanese yen versus the USD should be expected to increase as it is the best pair to track a weakening U.S. economy and dollar and the overall risk aversion of traders and investors alike in the current climate. As the long-time USD/JPY carry trade continues to unwind, the bulls of this pair have seen a quick and drastic turnaround in its direction. Continued flight from the long side of this pair as the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates should help to continue the downtrend for the longer term.
This week, the yen gained strength against the USD, moving up over 150 pips, dropping from 92.77 yen to below 91.00 yen. Because of recent volatility, traders may wish to wait for confirmation of the Bank of Japan's decision to start the interest rate normalization process before hopping on this momentum trade.
Based in U.S. dollars, the Japanese yen trades in a currency pair (USD/JPY) where it is the quote currency, rather than the base currency. The CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE:FXY) tracks the opposite of this pair and at a multiple of 1,000, so purchasing 1 share of FXY is equivalent to shorting US$1,000 of the spot pair.
The Swiss Franc
The USD/CHF currency pair, tends to be negatively correlated with the EUR/USD, as the CHF and EUR have a strong positive correlation. Because of this correlation, it is always a good idea to compare the moves of the two pairs to ensure future moves are being predicted correctly. With the EUR/USD breaking above a triple top resistance this month, it seems necessary to see if the USD/CHF has broken below its support. A quick look at this pair's chart shows us that the price has yet to break below the triple top resistance, and as the euro usually leads the franc, traders may look to catch a little more downside in this pair.
This past week, the franc has gained some strength against the USD, along with all the other pairs, with a move of almost 350 pips from the open at 1.2096 francs.
Like the yen, the franc's spot pair, USD/CHF, is quoted in its own currency rather than the USD. The CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (NYSE:FXF), like the other CurrencyShare Trusts, is quoted in dollars. Much like with the yen, purchasing shares of FXF is equivalent to short selling the spot pair because of the opposite quote currency. Unlike the yen, though, the multiple is only 100, so purchasing 1 share of FXF is the same as shorting US$100 of the USD/CHF currency pair.
To learn more about the forex markets, check out Investopedia's Forex Special Feature and Investopedia's Forex Trading Guide.
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FOREX-Dollar falls to 6-week low vs yen on payroll shock
* U.S. payrolls data show steepest fall in 34 years
* Dollar falls to 6-week low vs yen, but rises vs euro
* Markets fully price another half-point rate cut
* For up-to-the-minute market news, click on FXNEWS (Recasts, updates prices, adds quotes, changes byline, dateline; previous LONDON)
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, Dec 5 (Reuters) - The dollar fell to a six-week low against the yen on Friday after government data showed the U.S. economy lost more than half a million jobs in November, the worst performance in 34 years.
The dollar, however, rose against the euro, as investors again sought shelter in the U.S. currency away from European currencies on darkening prospects for economies worldwide.
"The much weaker-than-expected November result alongside a sharp downward revision to October suggests the U.S. recession underway is going to be a long one," said Stephen Malyon, chief currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto.
"The U.S. dollar has weakened, indicating that fundamental gravity might finally be weighing on the currency," he added.
In early New York trading, the dollar fell as low as 91.60 yen
The euro
The dollar rose 1.5 percent against the Swiss franc to 1.2123 francs
Data on Friday showed U.S. employers cut payrolls by a shocking 533,000 in November, the steepest monthly loss since 1974, as recession in the world's largest economy deepened. Markets were expecting job losses of 340,000, according to Reuters data. For report, click on [ID:nN05444819].
The unemployment rate likewise rose to 6.7 percent, the highest since 1993.
"The November employment report was staggeringly poor, even for a market increasingly inured to ugly data," said Alan Ruskin, chief international strategist, at RBS Global Banking and Markets in Chicago.
"Is there any good news? Only in so much as it will be hard to get worse numbers ... There are simply no redeeming features in this data. Weakness is evident everywhere," he added.
The gloomy jobs data further bolstered expectations of another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
Interest rate futures now fully price a 50 basis-point Fed rate cut on Dec. 16, which would take the federal funds rate to 0.50 percent. The implied prospects for a cut to 0.25 percent jumped to 76 percent from 64 percent late on Thursday. (Additional reporting by Nick Olivari; Editing by James Dalgleish)
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Forex and Dow Jones recommended levels
December 12, 2008
GMT 02:37
EUR/USD
Todays support: - 1.3263 and 1.3230 (main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3208, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3184. Break of the latter would result in 1.3168. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3136. Continuation will give 1.3098.
Todays resistance: - 1.3376 and 1.3410(main). Break would give 1.3442, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.3465. Break of the latter would result in 1.3500. If a strong impulse, wed see 1.3518. Continuation will give 1.3543 and 1.3587.
USD/JPY
Todays support: - 91.12 and 90.90(main). Break would bring 90.64, where correction is possible. Then 90.42. If a strong impulse, we would see 90.19. Continuation would give 90.06 and 89.90.
Todays resistance: - 91.91 and 92.14(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 92.35, where also a correction may be. Then 92.60. If a strong impulse, we would see 92.86. Continuation will give 93.16, 93.35 and 93.62.
DOW JONES INDEX
Todays support: - 8592.10(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8578.13, where correction also can be. Then follows 8561.20. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8541.56. Continuation will bring 8527.40 and 8506.00.
Todays resistance: - 8911.90 and 8644.22(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8663.20, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8732.60, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, wed see 8780.63. Continuation would bring 8827.20, 8867.14 and 8930.30.
FOREX-Dollar down vs yen after weak data, Obama victory
* Dollar falls vs yen as weak data dulls risk appetite
* Safe-haven bid and Obama victory boost dollar vs euro
* Obama's election removes some uncertainty for market
* Weak euro-zone, UK data presage big ECB, BoE rate cuts (Recasts, adds comment, updates prices, changes byline)
By Steven C. Johnson
NEW YORK, Nov 5 (Reuters) - The dollar fell against the yen on Wednesday as weak economic data added to fears about the economy but gained on the euro after Democrat Barack Obama's decisive victory in the U.S. presidential election.
Obama's historic and convincing win helped erase one source of uncertainty for financial markets, analysts said, and that helped boost the dollar against most major currencies.
On his first day as president-elect, Obama was greeted by reports showing employers cut 157,000 private sector jobs last month while the services sector contracted sharply. For more see [nN05256456].
"The U.S. election sends the message that there's finally some political certainty, and that's one more risk off the table for markets," said Mark Frey, head of FX trading at Custom House in Victoria, British Columbia.
"But the overall economic picture darkened today, and the overall sentiment on the economy is still quite negative."
Unease about the economy cut demand for riskier assets, including those in euros, sterling and high-yield currencies, and prompted investors to repatriate funds into dollars. U.S. stocks fell, with the Dow industrials .DJI closing down more than 5 percent.
But that anxiety also lifted the yen
The euro fell 0.9 percent to $1.2912
A slump in euro zone manufacturing to a fresh decade low also weighed on the zone's common currency and overall risk appetite, boosting expectations of at least a half a percentage point interest rate cut from the European Central Bank on Thursday.
The Bank of England is also expected to cut rates by at least half a point, though markets are increasingly pricing in the chance of a bigger cut to stimulate the British economy.
The ECB and BoE last month each delivered half-point cuts to 3.75 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively, in a coordinated move with other central banks, including the Federal Reserve.
Analysts pointed out, though, that hefty rate cuts would not necessarily hurt the currencies but could instead spark a rally as central banks prove they are taking recession risks seriously.
The same happened earlier this week when the Australian dollar rallied after the Reserve Bank of Australia surprised markets with a bigger-than-expected rate cut.
"The market is likely to reward the ECB and BoE, as it did the RBA, if the central banks take aggressive steps to address the deterioration in their economies," said Brown Brothers Harriman in a research note to clients.
ING analysts pointed out that ECB board member Axel Weber -- often considered a policy hawk -- has "given his blessings" for big rate cuts.
European Central Bank executive board member Juergen Stark told the Financial Times Deutschland that weak euro zone growth and oil price fluctuations could push inflation briefly into negative territory. [ID:nL571838]. (Additional reporting by Nick Olivari in New York and Naomi Tajitsu in London; Editing by James Dalgleish)
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
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FOREX-Euro hits 6-week high vs dollar; SNB cuts rates
* Euro hits 6-wk high at $1.3158
* SNB cuts rates by 50 bps, as expected
* U.S. auto deal makes progress, rocky road seen in Senate
(Changes dateline, byline, adds quotes, new prices; pvs TOKYO)
By Veronica Brown
LONDON, Dec 11 (Reuters) - The euro hit a six-week high against a broadly weaker dollar on Thursday with doubts beginning to creep in as to whether projected pent-up demand for the U.S. currency would materialise over the year-end.
Dealers also cited technical momentum in favour of the euro, having vaulted the $1.30 level, while markets were still keeping a keen eye on chequered progress of a bailout for the troubled U.S. auto sector.
The Swiss National Bank became the latest leading central bank to cut interest rates, but its impact was limited as the 50 basis point move paled in comparison with more dramatic reductions from other central banks last week.
Having climbed thanks to a wave of risk aversion in recent months, in tandem with the low-yielding Japanese yen, some analysts said pent up demand for the U.S. unit from deleveraging flows might be showing some sign of cooling.
"There was strong consensus that the requirement for dollars over the end-year period would see the dollar pushed higher, but that doesn't seem to be materialising," said Adam Cole, global head of currency strategy at RBC Capital Markets in London.
"For that reason people are beginning to question how strong the dollar stays near-term," he said.
Expectations for big European Central Bank rate cuts cooled after Executive Board member Juergen Stark said late on Wednesday the bank did not have a lot of room for manoeuvre after its cut last week, and that any further reductions could be done only in small steps.
Despite a spike up in euro/dollar after his comments, economists were sanguine about the impact on sentiment.
"Interest rate differentials play a minor role at the moment. But ... it's not good for Euroland that the ECB does not have so much room for manoeuvre," said Elisabeth Andrew, senior strategist at Nordea in Copenhagen.
By 0924 GMT, the euro was up 0.8 percent on the day at $1.3113, having hit a six-week high of $1.3158 earlier in the global session.
Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was down 0.7 percent at 84.829 .DXY, while it also dipped 0.4 percent versus the yen to 92.25 yen
The dollar traded up at 1.1920 Swiss francs compared with 1.1905 francs
CRACKS IN GLOBAL PLAN?
There was little reaction in FX markets to the approval of a $14 billion auto industry bailout plan by the U.S. House of Representatives. [ID:nN09294627]
While the House stuck to its plan, uncertainty was seen in the Senate, where a razor-thin Democratic majority cannot ensure passage. A vote could come as early as Thursday, but some Republicans have vowed to slow or even block the legislation.
Elsewhere, cracks were appearing in the global effort to drag the world out of recession on Thursday with Germany attacking Britain ahead of an EU summit for rushing into debt to bail out industries and pump up growth. [nLB344189]
In an interview with Newsweek magazine, Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck urged governments to pause before pledging to spend billions of dollars to try to push their economies out of trouble. (Reporting by Veronica Brown; Editing by Mike Peacock)
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
FOREX: Ringgit Opens Higher Against U.S. Dollar
At 9.00 am, the ringgit was traded higher at 3.5300/5340 against the greenback compared with last Friday's closing of 3.5500/5540.
The greenback was softer against major currencies after the employment report showed that the American economy lost 240,000 jobs last month, exceeded forecasts of 200,000 jobs.
"The weak employment data had hurt the dollar but supported the ringgit this morning," a dealer said.
The local unit was mostly mixed against other major currencies.
It weakened against the Singapore dollar at 2.3835/3886 from 2.3759/3806 last Friday but was higher against the yen at 3.5578/5632 from 3.6455/6507 previously.
The ringgit was down against the British pound at 5.5947 from 5.5856/5936 on last Friday but higher against the euro at 4.5442/5517 from 4.5515/5576 previously.
-- BERNAMA
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FOREX-Euro surges to 6-wk high vs dollar; SNB cuts rates
* Euro hits 6-wk high at $1.3158
* ECB's Stark comments cool rate cut expectations
* SNB cuts rates by 50 bps, as expected
* U.S. auto deal makes progress, rocky road seen in Senate
(Adds quotes, updates prices)
By Tamawa Desai
LONDON, Dec 11 (Reuters) - The euro hit a six-week high against a broadly weaker dollar on Thursday with doubts creeping in as to whether pent-up demand for the U.S. currency over the year-end will be as strong as previously thought.
Implied interest rate spreads also moved in the euro's favour after European Central Bank Executive Board member Juergen Stark said late on Wednesday the bank did not have a lot of room for manoeuvre on rates after its cut last week.
Having climbed on a wave of risk aversion in recent months in tandem with the low-yielding Japanese yen, some analysts said further dollar demand into the year-end from deleveraging flows might be showing some sign of cooling. A fall in volatility also indicated that extreme risk aversion may be easing.
"We're seeing some year-end position adjustment. With volatility coming down, it may prompt some investors to dabble in risk," said Geoffrey Yu, strategist at UBS in London.
By 1150 GMT, the euro was up 1.1 percent on the day at $1.3171, having hit a six-week high of $1.3186 earlier in the session.
Implied volatility on one-month dollar/yen currency options fell below 20 percent on Thursday compared with that level seen at the start of the week
The single currency spiked late on Wednesday after the Stark comments, while implied euro/U.S. rate spreads reflected a cooling in ECB rate cut expectations. By contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut borrowing costs again next week.
"If the euro zone is being perceived to still have rates at substantially higher levels then obviously there's a positive rate spread, but I'm not convinced that its ultimately going to be positive as the dynamics of the euro zone economy are pretty weak," Rabobank markets strategist Jeremy Stretch said.
Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was down 1.0 percent at 84.604 .DXY, while it also dipped 0.4 percent versus the yen to 92.18 yen
The Swiss National Bank became the latest leading central bank to cut interest rates, but its impact was limited as the 50 basis point move paled in comparison with more dramatic reductions from other central banks last week.
The dollar traded up at 1.1927 Swiss francs compared with 1.1905 francs
CRACKS IN GLOBAL PLAN?
There was little reaction in FX markets to the approval of a $14 billion auto industry bailout plan by the U.S. House of Representatives. [ID:nN09294627]
While the House stuck to its plan, uncertainty was seen in the Senate, where a razor-thin Democratic majority cannot ensure passage. A vote could come as early as Thursday, but some Republicans have vowed to slow or even block the legislation.
Elsewhere, cracks were appearing in the global effort to drag the world out of recession on Thursday with Germany attacking Britain ahead of an EU summit for rushing into debt to bail out industries and pump up growth. [nLB344189]
In an interview with Newsweek magazine, Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck urged governments to pause before pledging to spend billions of dollars to try to push their economies out of trouble.
Monday, December 15, 2008
FOREX-Yen gains, risk aversion hits stocks worldwide
* Yen rises, shares slide worldwide on risk aversion
* Sterling falls on weak services PMI
* Market awaits rate decisions from ECB, BoE
* For up-to-the-minute market news, click on FXNEWS (Updates prices, adds quotes, changes byline, changes dateline,previous LONDON)
By Nick Olivari
NEW YORK, Dec 3 (Reuters) - The yen extended gains across the board on Wednesday, reflecting heightened risk aversion as investors cut back on investments in higher-yielding assets while stocks fell around the world.
Currency moves were subdued ahead of interest rate decisions on Thursday by central banks in the euro zone, Britain, New Zealand and Sweden, with expectations high of aggressive monetary policy easing to counter the threat of deflation.
Investors have flocked to the dollar and the yen on the view that the ECB, BoE and other central banks have more scope to cut rates than the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve, whose rates are already low.
"We speculate that the market is particularly nervous over the ECB decision tomorrow," said Stephen Malyon, senior currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto in a note to clients. "The discrepancy between what many believe the ECB should do, and what it is expected to do, has produced plenty of discord between economists over the outcome."
While the consensus ECB call is for a 50 basis point cut to 2.75 percent, there are many economists expecting a 75 basis point cut, and a not-insignificant number thinking the ECB could deliver a 100 basis point cut, Malyon said.
In early New York trade, the dollar slid 0.6 percent to 92.83 yen
The low-yielding Japanese currency, which hovered near a five-week high against the dollar, drew strength from tumbling share prices as European equities fell 1.6 percent , while U.S stock futures .DJc1 slated a lower market open.
Investors continued to unwind carry trades, where the yen was used to fund purchases of higher-yielding assets. Analysts said the yen would take strength from share prices -- often seen as a barometer of investors' risk appetite -- which suggest that risk aversion remains high.
The euro
Earlier in the day, bleak PMI services data for the euro zone pushed the euro to a session low against the dollar and the yen, as the figure provided further evidence that the single currency region is grappling with a recession. [nL3261302].
WEAK SERVICES PMI
Sterling fell broadly after data showed that the UK services sector shrank faster than expected in November [ID:nL2553471]. Sterling was last down 1.1 percent against the dollar at 1.4746
The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the services sector fell to a series low of 40.1, boosting expectations that the Bank of England may slash rates by a full percentage point from 3.0 percent on Thursday to shore up the domestic economy.
A report from ADP Employer Services showing U.S. private employers cut 250,000 jobs in November, the most in seven years and more than the 200,000 expected, had little impact on foreign exchange markets.
"The ADP report is a volatile gauge but the headline figure of 250,000 seems consistent with deep economic recession and that's where we are at this point," Kurt Karl, chief U.S. economist at Swiss Re in New York.
China's central bank entered the domestic foreign exchange market on Wednesday to offer dollar liquidity, which pulled the yuan off the bottom of its daily trading band versus the U.S. currency [ID:nSHA303595].
However, many in the market believe China is adjusting its currency policy towards moderate yuan depreciation to stimulate the economy. (Additional reporting by Vivianne Rodrigues in New York and Harpreet Bhal in London, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
FOREX-U.S. dollar drops to six-week lows vs euro
* Dollar hits 7-wk low vs yen, 6-wk trough vs euro
* U.S. economic data weighs on dollar
* U.S. auto deal makes progress, rocky road seen in Senate (Updates prices, adds quotes)
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, Dec 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar fell broadly on Thursday, undermined by the market's improved appetite for taking risk in other currencies again as short term U.S. yields fall closer to zero.
The U.S. currency, which hit a seven-week low versus the yen and a six-week trough against the euro on Thursdsay, was also burdened by data suggesting a further rise in U.S. unemployment in the world's largest economy.
"I do think people are having a lot of questions about the Federal Reserve's balance sheet -- the fact that they have created so much liquidity," said Ken Landon, a currency strategist at JP Morgan Chase in New York.
"Since dollar funding pressures have come off somewhat, there are excess dollars right now. This could be one of the big macro causations at this point," he added.
The rates banks charge each other for dollar, euro, and sterling funds fell again on Thursday, with three-month dollar rates below 2.0 percent for the first time since late 2004.
Despite easing credit conditions, investors remained apprehensive about the U.S. auto sector, even though the House of Representatives approved a rescue package late Wednesday. The deal, which would provide up to $14 billion in loans to troubled car markers, could face challenges in the Senate.
Having climbed on a wave of risk aversion in recent months in tandem with the low-yielding yen, some analysts also said further dollar demand into the year-end from de-leveraging flows might be showing signs of cooling.
In midday New York trading, the dollar fell as low as 91.18
A fall in volatility also indicated that extreme risk aversion may be easing. Implied volatility on one-month dollar/yen currency options fell to 17 percent on Thursday, compared with 38.55
TECHNICALS, U.S. DATA WEIGH ON DOLLAR
The euro rose to $1.3292
Analysts said technical factors also weighed on the dollar. The greenback has breached an important technical level against the euro around $1.3150 but it was unclear whether the single euro zone currency has hit a bottom.
The ICE Futures' dollar index was down 1.6 percent at 84.080 .DXY, its lowest since early November.
U.S. economic reports on Thursday were also not supportive of the dollar.
Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits jumped to a seasonally-adjusted 573,000 in the week ended Dec. 6, the highest since November 1982, when 612,000 workers submitted new claims for unemployment benefits.
"These jobless claims numbers reflect the massive layoffs that we have heard in the past weeks from companies like AT&T, Viacom and Sony," said Kathy Lien, director of currency research at GFT Forex in New York. "The (data) will add pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 75 basis points next Tuesday."
The U.S. trade deficit, meanwhile, widened unexpectedly in October, with imports from China rising to a new high, while U.S. import prices fell 6.7 percent last month after a 5.4 decline in October.
In other asset markets, global stocks as measured by MSCI's all-country index have risen 2.1 percent so far in December, while the dollar index has fallen 2.5 percent on the month.
Implied rate spreads also moved in the euro's favor after European Central Bank Executive Board member Juergen Stark said late on Wednesday the bank did not have a lot of room to maneuver on rates after its cut last week.
In Switzerland, the Swiss National Bank became the latest leading central bank to cut interest rates, but its impact was limited as the 50 basis point move paled in comparison to more dramatic reductions from other central banks last week.
The dollar fell 0.8 percent against the Swiss franc to 1.1888 francs
Sunday, December 14, 2008
FOREX-Dollar, yen slip on hopes for US auto bailout
* Dlr, yen slide; hope for US auto bailout lifts sentiment
* US could vote on rescue plan as early as Wednesday
* Losses in dlr, yen seen limited, risk aversion stays high
(Changes dateline, byline, adds comment; previous TOKYO)
By Naomi Tajitsu
LONDON, Dec 10 (Reuters) - The dollar and the yen fell on Wednesday as some investors were relieved by a tentative agreement by U.S. lawmakers to rescue stricken automakers.
The euro hit a two-week high against the U.S. currency after Asian shares jumped 3 percent to a one-month high.
Traders have been selling the dollar and the low-yielding yen when stocks gain and market volatility calms, which boosts sentiment and quells demand to dump risky assets.
The U.S. House of Representatives could vote as early as Wednesday on a $15 billion plan to bail out and restructure U.S. automakers but the initiative may face possible roadblocks in the Senate, officials said. [ID:nN09294627].
"There's a feel-good factor in the market ... and that's to do with the new that the bailout package for the U.S. automakers is coming quite close to being finalised," said Phyllis Papadavid, currency strategist at Societe Generale in London.
The euro
Despite the U.S. currency's broad losses, it rose 0.5 percent to 92.62 yen
The euro
Currency volatility slipped, helping to weigh on the dollar and the yen.
One-month implied dollar/yen volatility
A tentative improvement in sentiment cooled a rush to unwind carry trades which had used the yen, whose interest rate is near zero, to fund purchases of higher-yielding assets.
This helped to push the higher-yielding New Zealand dollar
Despite improving demand for higher-yielding currencies on Wednesday, Papadavid at SG said selling of the dollar and the yen would prove short-lived.
"The macro economic reality is unlikely to change in terms of weaker growth outlook ... so we continue to look for both yen strength and dollar strength in the near term," she said.
US BAILOUT IN FOCUS
Traders waited to see whether the U.S. House of Representatives would approve the automaker bailout, which includes conditions to providing low-interest loans to avert a threatened industry collapse if one of them were to fail.
Some market participants are sceptical on whether such a plan, if passed, would actually save the struggling auto sector, while others argue that a rescue will ultimately do little to cure the global recession.
Analysts say a raft of stimulus plans and aggressive interest rate cuts are helping to alleviate some economic pain but that expectations that the global recession may be deeper than initially thought would keep risk aversion low.
"The general improvement in risk appetite is failing to recognise the severity of the economic downturn but combined efforts by policymakers and lawmakers to pre-empt potential risk events is having a positive effect," analysts at UBS said in a research note.
"Nevertheless, the market may yet reach a stage where interest in risk assets cannot be justified by the underlying conditions in the global economy." (Editing by Mike Peacock)
sourceForex Market Update: EUR, AUD and GBP Under Selling Pressure in Asia
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